Should We Really Include the A in Anthropogenic Global Warming? (Part 1)

Selway Falls, Idaho – Drone Shot

Readers note: I wrote this in November ’23, but didn’t publish it. My health is better, FWIW, though I’m still likely not to 100%. It’s still accurate, and I’ll continue the thoughts in the next piece. But this has a lot of important background.

It’s been a busy fall, and I haven’t had much of a chance to write down thoughts. I had a mesenteric venous thrombosis, with mandatory surgery after all this, that knocked the wind out of my summer. And though no real diagnosis has been made regarding the deep ‘why’ — I’m back at about 90% throttle.

One of the interesting things that did happen this fall was a visit from two Russian theoretical physicists deep in the middle of the climate science wars. Anastassia Makarieva and Andrei Nefiodov, both of the Petersburg Institute, came to visit primarily to discuss how one puts forward controversial issues in environmental issues that boil over into intense political discussions. My specialty, I guess!

Makarieva and Nefiodov both have done a first principles approach toward understanding climate science. They are motivated by both a deep love of their own forests on the White Sea, as well as a classic Russian attraction to physics. And since we are now at the edge of debates for planetary scale human actions ostensibly to save us from CO2 pollution, that is, once again, supposedly driving Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) in order to save the planet, my position is pretty straightforward — we better be sure the crisis folks across the globe are purporting to exist actually does, and that what we are proposing at scale does not reap the whirlwind back on us.

To be honest, I’ve had my doubts about the current apocalyptic AGW narrative for a while now. As someone that’s been involved in this fight from the very beginning of the latest chapter (I’m calling this the last 35 years that really started with Bill McKibben’s book, ‘The End of Nature’, first published in 1989) I was always predisposed to the CO2 part of the narrative. And I waited for sea levels to rise, looked at articles on receding glaciers, and considered the, well, considerable iniquity of the various energy companies. All of us with lifelong careers in environmental politics had the map. Fossil fuels were/are bad, they’re literally destroying the planet, we’re going to run out of them, and we need to kick our very bad habit of endless war around them. It was easy, it was pat, and even now, a heckuva lot of it is demonstrably true.

But as sea level rise hasn’t happened — some spots here and there — and anything involving more than a cursory look at glacial receding indicates that glaciers were receding before the real effects of fossil fuel consumption. And finally, the mega-storms predicted haven’t really shown up either. Yes, we have hurricanes, but we’ve always had hurricanes. And we have seen some modest changes in the weather — I’ve noticed some destabilization of Arctic flows in the winter — but that’s about it. No reversal of the Gulf Stream.

What HAS changed is the intensity of the constant drumbeat toward apocalypse that comes out of the media. Weather maps with virtually identical temperature profiles to ones 50 years ago are splashed across our microsecond attention span screens, bright red and orange, predicting the end of the world every summer. But listen, folks. Texas has always been hot. Ask General Philip Sheridan. ” If I owned Texas and Hell, I’d rent out Texas and live in Hell.”

And the reality? Miami, one of the first places predicted to be underwater because of AGW, is no closer to sinking than it ever has been. Which isn’t saying much, considering Florida’s natural precarity. The downstream effects of global warming are starting to seriously not match the narrative.

What is interesting is that, at least for me, there’s not a single piece of progressive activism individually taken to protect the environment that necessarily demands the AGW narrative. Oil companies continue to pollute and want to drill in environmentally sensitive areas. Renewable energy should still be developed apace. Natural areas should be saved, biodiversity protected. But AGW adds an overarching dynamic that none of these smaller pieces of effort demand. It demands wholesale lifestyle changes in spades. And it threatens that if we don’t fall in line with the cadre that insist on its political views, we are literally wrecking life on Earth.

The problem is that the immediate levers that the environmental community are really demanding to solve the climate ‘crisis’, which really sum to complete dismantling of mobility of our current population, their reduction, and a radical change to diet eliminating meat, all have immediate consequences to social structures and independent agency across the planet. Take meat consumption, for example. If we are having anything approaching a civilization-ending crisis, it is the metabolic syndrome/obesity crisis that populations literally everywhere are facing. In the US, we’re approaching something like 55% of the population as being overweight, and some lesser number being obese. I’ve written extensively about how this imbalance in diet, largely solvable by reducing dramatically our diet of manufactured carbohydrates and shifting to a more keto-based diet, is actually making us stupid on a physical level. And depriving people of their health is the one key element of reducing their agency, which then drives depression and isolation, two primary ingredients in any Authoritarian system.

It becomes obvious, then, that while the climate crisis might be up in the air, the memetic crisis is in full swing. To go to a less free, and free thinking society, you simply have to have relational disruption. Without it, people will organize against it — it’s what humans do in the long game. And as I’ve discussed many times on this blog, the key element inside any social network (not just talking about Facebook, folks) that causes that relational disruption are psychopaths. And psychopaths are all about power and control, and folks being depressed. If you’re depressed, you’re far more easy to control.

You’ll see this kind of messaging resonate across contemporary environmentalism. Even the protests symbolically involve gluing oneself to the street, or art, or just about anything. This meme sums it up best.

And the downstream effects of this memetic crisis are manifesting themselves among the young. Motivation in more evolved countries, to get married and have children is poor. It’s also no surprise that the issue eating up far too much oxygen in the political climate is the transgender issue, especially directed at kids. Instead of a focus on personal development, rigid gender stereotypes are used as a reason for any opposing gendered individual as a rationale for hormonal and surgical gender mutilation. If you think those kids were depressed before they started getting inducted as raw material in the gender reassignment industry, wait ten years. More depression, more ease of control. More people with borderline personality disorder and other obvious issues in the spotlight. And importantly, more suspension of agency for any somewhat normal to say that what is happening isn’t just batshit crazy.

I guess the point is this — when Anastassia and Andrei showed up on my doorstep, I was already into the world of increasing skepticism of the AGW narrative. And it turns out my skepticism was well-founded.

Andrei gave the first presentation at night to our local environmental group, the Friends of the Clearwater. He showed some pretty pictures before putting up this graph below.

This turns out to be a very interesting graph indeed. What does it show? The primary users of energy on this planet are not human. The real energetic flux is in soil and microorganisms, or plankton in the ocean. 90% of all energy — the literal life of Gaia — has basically nothing to do with us.

It’s only when you get down to contributions from vertebrates (~1%) that we show up at all. Fossil fuels have magnified our impact. No surprise there maybe boosting it from a thermodynamic basis to around 7%. So we do have an effect. But most of what passes on this planet has nothing to do with us.

I started this piece almost a year ago — and I should have posted it then. But really because of my own fears of social isolation in my community, I didn’t. I should have.

What is really going on with the AGW drumbeat? We’ve moved forward into an election year. No issue is more binned up, L/R, than AGW. Any shred of rationality regarding the consequentiality of this has been literally blown away. I’ll cover that in my next essay. I’ll spare you, my readers the punchline — as a result of out profound social fragmentation, we will now buy anything anyone who acts on our side of the line — for the Left, it’s institutional control — no matter how preposterous, or against events we can witness with our own eyes.

The problem with all this emphasis on control, and single factor blame, is that it’s turned CO2 into The One Ring. And we all know enough Tolkien to know what that means. Except, apparently, even in light of the billionaire class talking about building sulfur cannons on island mountaintops and spraying crazy levels of pollution into the air, we aren’t getting the very direct analogy.

More Boeing Blues — Starliner, DEI, and Getting Saved by SpaceX

Three cheers and one cheer more!

Two astronauts aboard the Boeing Starliner, a reusable space capsule design by Boeing Defense, have been temporarily stranded at the International Space Station due to maintenance and reliability problems with their capsule. NASA Mission Control decided to bring the capsule back empty, rather than risk potentially catastrophic failure of the capsule during re-entry, without question the most stressful part of spaceflight, when the capsule must plunge back through the atmosphere in a literal fireball.

Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, the two astronauts who took the big vertical ride early June 2024, were sentenced to additional months in orbit on the ISS because of the mission failure, though when the Starliner was brought back through the atmosphere, it did touch down in September (uncrewed) successfully. Starliner was a program funded coterminously with SpaceX’s Dragon capsule, to the tune of $4.2B, while Dragon received $2.6B. According to Wikipedia, Boeing’s project had already exceeded its fixed price contract by $1.6B, indicating a major financial loss for Boeing.

There are all sorts of interesting top-level insights on the Wikipedia page, and I recommend reading it (I hadn’t until I decided to write this piece!) Of particular interest is receptivity to feedback from both the Boeing and the SpaceX engineering teams in the development phase of this project. The various mission failures along the path of Starliner resulted in the termination of Boeing Defense, Space and Security CEO Ted Colbert, who previously had been in charge of Boeing Global Services and CIO of the entire Boeing Company. From reading his resume’, Colbert had been rewarded with recognition that he was both African-American and an engineer multiple times in his career. I’m sure he was happy to play the DEI card in order to move up in Boeing’s chronic Game of Thrones hierarchy, and achieve entry into what many of us call Boeing’s Prince cohort. People at the level of Colbert wield a lot of power and authority. They get their own plane (and I’m not talking a Cessna 172.) I don’t know the exact number of levels in the hierarchy necessary to get to his position, but I’m guessing it is at least seven.

Was he hired because he was a black man? Well, that was probably a consideration. Boeing touts its DEI focus loudly, so I can’t really even understand why that would even be considered in a racist insult. That sword cuts both ways. But it’s just not interesting to me hanging the failure of Starliner all on one dude because he’s black. It really dodges the real blame of what different psychosocial systems produce. What does Conway’s Law really tell us, after all? Rigid psychosocial systems like the Boeing Company, at best, maximize incremental improvement and reliability. And at worst, reward the anti-risk-takers, who then propagate that attitude down the various levels of hierarchy toward a cult of new design mediocrity. Great for maintaining a legacy product line, maybe. Awful for producing anything new.

And Colbert didn’t take over Boeing Defense until 2022 — long after the various problems with Starliner’s problems with its thruster clusters were well-defined, if not understood. Sure — he didn’t fix them. But it’s not clear inside a massive, political rigid hierarchy, that he even could. What CEO, in a multi-stack hierarchical system, even does?

A better way of understanding the problems with Starliner, filled with status-driven infighting at the Boeing Company and its subcontractors, is to look at what SpaceX has done right. The answer is simpler than one might think.

SpaceX is willing to blow rockets up.

Why does this matter? One of the biggest challenges of complexity, that has been covered to death in the aftermath of the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster, was the lack of what’s called “All Up” testing. All Up testing means putting the whole system on a launchpad, and launching it into space. Doing this recognizes that there is only so much information that can be gathered from reliability testing of components. Why? Components in a large-scale system can only have their respective interactions observed when assembled together and tested. Even then, there’s no hope of constraining complex subassemblies and gathering statistical data for the entire system. You can’t launch a space shuttle 1000 times (or a rocket, for that matter) and gain that kind of confidence. Sooner or later, you have to put it together on a launchpad and Light That Candle.

But rigid hierarchies crave that kind of security. Boeing and NASA have, in the last 40 years, enshrined a no-risk culture that simply is not feasible for pushing the boundaries of spaceflight. The key concept here is what’s know as “configuration control.” What that is is you know all meaningful interactions between the various subsystems before you move forward. And while some level of due diligence in predicting those interactions is certainly part of engineering excellence, the other part of this is realizing you can’t know. And this kind of epistemic humility does not emerge out of experts in rigid silos.

Colbert was not set up as a fall guy for DEI, though he was indeed likely given the position because he had proceeded up the hierarchical stack and had the resume’ for the position. And he was black. But just look at his Wikipedia entry — everything in his career pattern was about exactly what the v-Memes of the contemporary Boeing Company enshrines. And that ain’t risk taking. So metacognition dies, your organization becomes insular, and all your enemies are, of course, on the outside. Because no one on the inside would even bring up a problem before it would happen.

That’s what the death of metacognition looks like.

Meanwhile, SpaceX has been busy lining up rockets to blow up, knowing a priori that they would. And because of a young engineering culture, and an expectation that they are creating a learning organization, they’re successfully learning the boundaries of what they don’t know — which is what you need when you cannot a priori assess the limits of configuration control. Knowing what you don’t know enables you to cure your ignorance. And then push the system boundary continuously outward.

There are also some natural consequences of demographics that SpaceX has going for them. I’ve done a couple of projects with them (I’ve also done projects with Boeing) and the main thing that impressed me was how young their engineering staff was. Aside from a couple of my ex-students, I never dealt with anyone older than 30. Combine that with goal-based v-Meme thinking (we just want to solve the immediate problem any way we can) and deep Guiding Principles directions from Elon Musk, the founder (we want humans to be a multi planetary species) and you have a far more potent v-Meme structure than moving up one more click in a massive hierarchy.

Will Starliner ever be a successful competitor to SpaceX’s Dragon crew capsule? I personally think that it will take a while, but yes. The v-Meme system at Boeing — a large Legalistic Hierarchy — has the ability to generate the information to cover the information space to make a space capsule. And in large part, their reputation for other lucrative contracts depends on it. But at what cost? We’re going to get some time/money comparisons out of this as far as the efficiency of psychosocial systems in generating and dealing with complexity. Right now, we’re easily at 2:1 or 3:1 in favor of SpaceX But the answer ain’t gonna be pretty for legacy organizational modes.

End Times and the Politics of Immiseration

Snow Peak, St. Joe National Forest

A book so interesting, I’m listening to it twice, as I digest the implications is Peter Turchin’s End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration. In this book, Turchin explains his approach toward cliodynamics — a new field of his and his friends’ invention about mathematical modeling of history. Turchin uses large data sets to identify large-scale trends in history, borrowing from his own background in nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory. He is down deep in empirical data, which has its problems. But his top-level insights are outstanding, and his book is well worth reading twice, if nothing except for the fact that it fits the historical moment so well. (I’ve attempted to contact him a couple of times, but he doesn’t write back. Which is a shame, as many of my more faithful readers know my own work in this field is highly complementary to his own.)

Turchin’s work is significant in that he tracks the rise and fall of elites in human societies, and their influences and antics. He notes there’s somewhere between a cycle of 50 to 200 years in which societies rise, and then must go through historic readjustment based on one important phenomenon — elite overproduction. The short version of this is that elites rise for various reasons, then have too many kids which want the same thing (or more) that their parents had, and then upon not being able to achieve this, form counter-elites and other disintegrative forces in societies. Polygamous societies, for obvious reasons, are worse than monogamous societies, primarily along the lines of one elite man being able to produce many multiples of offspring that a monogamous couple cannot produce. It would be fascinating to read Turchin’s cliodynamic analysis of Saudi Arabian society.

Along the way, what accelerates decline is creation of what Turchin calls a Wealth Pump — some mechanism that transfers wealth from the poor to the rich. This varies, obviously, dependent on the bases of the society, and is also driven by the number of elites’ children that need that Wealth Pump to insure their own entrance into elite society. We’ve seen this phenomenon ourselves in the last 50 years. Our own wealth gap has grown and grown, while the poor have grown demonstrably poorer, largely because of increased tuition costs at colleges and universities.

Turchin doesn’t talk about relational dynamics beyond his concept of popular immiseration — as the rich need more, they get more and make the poor more miserable. One can hopefully see how this separation might be attenuated a bit if we focused on empathetic human development. But this doesn’t fall under Turchin’s purview as a major factor driving societal evolution. And another factor Turchin ignores is the multiplication of psychopaths and their manipulation of mental models that also happen as societies stagnate. Considering the resurrection of racism through the drumbeat of anti-racism is a great example of this. Pot, kettle?

It was in Rob Henderson’s recent book, Troubled, that he introduced the idea of “luxury beliefs” — as elites ran out of money to buy goods and live lifestyles that appear elite, they tend to adopt beliefs to virtue signal to other elites that they were indeed part of that upper class. An example he explains in detail is the Defund the Police movement. Often these beliefs are sociopathic gaslighting, which the elites actually don’t adhere to themselves (he uses the example of decriminalization of drugs, which the elites can buffer, but is highly destructive to the lower classes.) But almost to a one, they are aimed at, if the poors follow them, immiseration to the lower classes. They’re a characteristic of how societies come to crisis. The basic pattern is this:

  1. The elites overproduce kids.
  2. The kids, having no truly economically beneficial way of becoming an elite, invent other high-status virtue-signaling modalities (think of the explosion of NGOs and their staff) to assure their position.
  3. These kids create situations for depopulation/beat the shit out of the poors, or their own ranks (think wars here for the most basic form) until there are finally enough chairs in the crazy musical chairs game they’ve started so that they all have seats again.

These behaviors seem to be memetically coded into entire populations. Witness the current U.S. Presidential race for a great example. Using Turchin’s framework, it’s pretty obvious that Donald Trump is, at least, declared on the side of the peasantry and anti-immiseration, while Kamala Harris is solidly on the side of making those Deplorables pay for being deplorable.

Many of the various tricks we’re seeing on a large scale have been tried before. Importing labor from immigrants to do this is a classic modality, and one in play, with elites in charge ignoring whatever historic restrictions might have existed in order to secure slave labor for themselves. This augments their own Wealth Pump, as well as deplete jobs for the poor and lower middle class, driving down wages even more, which then directly contributes to immiseration.

This coupling of the Wealth Pump to popular immiseration has multiple forms. I hadn’t really considered it before today, but the entire transgender movement is an amazing example. The larger blob takes advantage of people with gender dysphoria (someone who believes they are a sex other than their birth sex) whose presence, both passive (just dressing up and walking around) and active (entering opposite sex restrooms, advocating for pedophilia) causes a lot of misery, as these codes are enforced top-down on the peasantry. Simultaneously, the mainstreamed surgeries and hormone treatments demanded by the gender-confused individuals further enrich the hospitals and medical staff delivering these surgeries. Since the procedures involve essentially lifetime medicalization, the money never stops flowing from the general population to this group of people.

Much of this involves chronic gaslighting of the public. I wrote about this in my most recent piece on the normalization of obesity through propaganda here. Even the prurient pleasure of the Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue has now been co-opted as a psychopathic weapon. You can’t even look at pictures of women with a nice rack and fantasize. Instead, you’re expected to, against your own deep genetic urges, to adulate a fatty. Because that’s the best you’re going to get.

Another current, ongoing example is the situation in Springfield, OH. “Someone” (not quite clear who) has resettled 20,000 Haitian refugees in Springfield, OH, a declining Midwestern industrial town of 60,000. The hue and cry in Springfield in the news mostly surrounds the question whether the immigrants are turning local pets and waterfowl into barbecue. And while the mainstream press, an arm of the elites that has been more than happy to press forward with immiseration of the lower classes, declares such claims false, the reality is that 20K translocated Haitians, in such a modest size community, have no pressure to assimilate. They are also supported heavily by various federal refugee resettlement programs, distorting the local real estate market and availability of public services. And with such a skew, likely are actually governed by gangs.

The two political candidates, as stated above, in the U.S. Presidential election, perfectly exemplify this binning phenomenon. The Democrats are squarely in the elite’s corner, constantly condemning ordinary white people as “Deplorables” and even worse, gate-keeping any potential access to elite ranks through mandatory indoctrination in our colleges and universities. If you don’t subscribe to the belief structures, you don’t get your degree. And if you don’t get your degree, then ostensibly you’re condemned to the underclass you were attempting to escape. Talk about getting your mind right, indeed.

And on the Republican side, you have Donald Trump. Trump is hated perhaps on the surface for his manners and crudity. But the reality of what Trump proposes is a dismantling of the institutional class/caste. Trump as a President was a mediocrity — I can’t think of a single thing he did that was seminal. But by posturing himself against the institutions and threatening to stop the Forever War posture of the U.S. (drop out of NATO, stop sending arms to Ukraine, etc.) he’s attempting to kill two birds with one stone: stop the popular immiseration of the poor by not recruiting their sons to die overseas; and secondly, kill the Wealth Pump for the Military/Industrial/Congressional Complex. All this makes him a threat in both the memetic, as well as the monetary space. And that threat of destabilization of institutions, even though these very institutions are corrupt, creates irrational rage among those in the top 10% of the population that perceive themselves as elite.

And worse. Call it what you will (Trump Derangement Syndrome) but even when you speak against those institutions, you’re going to excite every Flying Monkey in the mainstream press corps that aspires both to be a member of the elite, as well as seeks to promote luxury beliefs in some way to prove their own virtue. This piece was written after the first Harris/Trump debate, which was notable primarily for the fact that the ABC network moderators continually fact-checked Trump while leaving Harris basically alone. Why there are even such a Praetorian Guard associated with a debate, where every larger societal truth is deeply nuanced, is mind-boggling.

I’ve already received feedback from friends and acquaintances who certainly don’t support Donald Trump. Yet when questioned on the basics of Trump’s policies — no Forever War, control of immigration, and stopping various programs of immiseration — they are firmly on that side of the issue-driven debate. Yet they’ll still declare themselves voting for Harris, even though Harris has promised more of the same, while actually delivering on those outcomes as Vice President. Why do people vote against their actual interests, even when issues are broken down clearly? Never doubt the power of the tides of history, or the devolutionary state of a country’s v-Memes. The Matrix rules over all.

How all this ends is fundamentally opaque. Other periods like this, as Turchin notes, ended when the various nobles killed enough of each other off. The problem with any total war where this might occur is obvious — not just mass immiseration of the entire population, but devastation as well. But other, more positive outcomes require elites to rein themselves in. It has happened in the past — Lyndon Johnson’s New Deal was also an example.

At this point, at least to me, it’s looking into a glass darkly. But at least, viewing things through Turchin’s lens, as well as understanding the memetic structure of the argument, the larger meme-scape is framed. Hang on. Let’s see how many folks wake up.

Back to Basics – Conway’s Law – the Mechanics of It All

A day at the beach

In between babbling about memetics to friends, every now and then one will get a word in edgewise, and ask “OK, Mr. Smartypants. How do we change outcomes?” My answer is always the same. “You have to consciously and deliberately apply Conway’s Law and change the social structure. If you don’t change the social structure, the emergent outcomes that you’re complaining about won’t change.”

They look at me, somewhat knowingly, like they MIGHT have gotten it. And then they walk away, just hoping their organization is going to suddenly morph into something that will produce different outcomes than the current version. Of course, this is insane. What they’re really doing is retreating back into The Matrix. And what people don’t get is that The Matrix has physical laws. You don’t get to break them. Like Grandma always used to say, “wish in one hand, shit in another, and tell me which one fills up first.”

That Grandma.

If you’ve read this far, I’m going to assume that you might be looking for an example (or something) that really conveys to management how this is true, and how they might need to readjust their thinking, as well as their org. chart, if they want a different product design.

Look at a nuclear reactor power plant. It’s a big thing, and at the center is a nuclear reactor. The reactor has support services that connect to it, like cooling fluid, and maintenance departments in charge of things like pumps, environmental controls and whatnot. You better believe that the org. chart looks like that hierarchy.

Last week, I had a visitor from Germany, an organic farming advocate. I was explaining to him that if he wanted small, robotic crawlers and grabbers, as opposed to enormous wheat combines (he got to ride in one) that had to start with a change in social structure of the organization producing them. Not easy to do with no obvious market, and folks making fine money on giant machines, now even driven by satellite.

But let’s take an even simpler design example. An airplane.

Virtually all but a handful of modern aircraft have a tube, called a fuselage, in the middle, upon which are hung wings. Engines then are hung off the wings, and then of course, there are subsystems inside the wings that drive things like flaps, ailerons and control wires.

But getting back to the social configuration, you’d better believe there is a wing group, concerned with the aforementioned components, and there is a primary structures/fuselage group. (Remember this is a simplification.) Within the wing structures group is a sub-group who talks to the fuselage folks regarding attaching the wings to the fuselage. Those folks might even hang out together, because pinning the wings to the fuselage correctly has all sorts of issues, and is obviously critical to entire system integrity. This probably seems obvious (it is). There’s also going to be a vertical stabilizer group (that’s the tail) and a horizontal stabilizer group as well. That’s aircraft 101. The people that interface all that in the design will talk to each other. And then at a large aircraft manufacturer like Boeing, they even have people called “Liaison Engineers” (which they pronounce “Lie-uh-zon” accent on the first syllable) that basically cruise around and make sure the interface people, as well as other folks having integration issues, are taken care of.

I’ve trained my share of Liaison Engineers.

All this seems obvious. But how would such a group ever change an aircraft design to something like a blended wing/body design? See below.

They couldn’t, of course. They are locked inside their social structure, refining the parts of the airplane they are responsible for. This is not entirely a bad thing, in that in the process of refinement increases reliability of the current configuration. Which is a primary reason that airplanes don’t drop out of the sky, and the biggest thing you have to worry about on a flight is whether you’re going to get a package of mixed nuts. Or not.

Any development of such a blended wing-body aircraft would require major redesign, with a major reshuffling and pulling of experts out of all the current groups into an entirely different social structure. Because you’d take some of the old v-Meme NA of the design (e.g. probably attaching engines works much the same way, and trust me, Boeing has specialists for nailing engines to wings) but other things would be entirely different. You’d definitely have to have an entire group for ground crew liaison, and on and on. Those people would then have to talk to the outside vendors providing those sky bridges we’re all accustomed to.

Short version — you’d have to create an entirely new social structure, which then would have to create an entirely new CAD model (think knowledge structure) which would then be instantiated in the final blended-wing-body design.

On top of that, I’m willing to bet that the people in the current organization aren’t used to jumping out of their hierarchy to talk to other technical specialists in the other hierarchies producing the other large parts. Remember — they have those Liaison Engineers for reasons. But you’d need that, and then you’d also have to have some evolved leadership so that if people aren’t “staying in their lane” they know that’s OK, and even encouraged to bring issues that the other parts of the new configuration might need to know about. People that are used to phoning it in because they’re master of their small square of real estate in the old design are going to have to be encouraged to seek out places where the new design requires design synergy.

And without that, you couldn’t make that cool new design at all. Now take that down to manufacturing and you’ll have a markedly different assembly line for such an aircraft. Boeing 737s are built on a continually moving line. If you wanted to build that new plane, you’d have to rethink all of that. And that would require a very different org. chart as well. As well as integrating the manufacturing people far earlier in the process, so you could actually build the thing. It would be revelatory to put the 737 assembly process org. chart up next to a B-2 assembly org chart. While there would be commonalities, I guarantee they’d be significantly different in topology.

If you’ve been reading much of this blog, you now can start seeing how you have different conflicts, as well as synergies in reliability and validity. And that’s going to require different brains, with different abilities to talk to other people with different brains. If you haven’t had an organization that has evolved empathy, that’s not going to exist. And trust me on this one — the thought of jumping out of the org. chart won’t even occur to most people, except in the context of whistle-blowing wrongdoing.

So that’s Conway’s Law in a nutshell. Your org. chart, and how you develop your people, which is largely due to how you set up your communication culture, is destiny.

Because Conway’s Law is The Law.

The Obesity Pandemic and the Balance Between Genetic and Memetic War

2024 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue Cover

One of the things I spend far too much time pondering is the old “nature vs. nurture” question. Why wander about such well-trod ground? If you read my stuff, you can easily translate this to “genetics vs. memetics” and then start pulling apart the dark matter that is the latter, and has also been wholly neglected. We’ve left half the conceptual space blank when we want to understand information flows in society. Mores the pity.

But “nature vs. nurture” is really only the time invariant version of the question. The bigger question which is (to my knowledge) almost NEVER asked is “nurture => nature?” And importantly, how long? We have some evidence with epigenetics that trauma can modify neural codes, through the influence of cortisol and other stress hormones. But it’s still largely an undiscovered country out there.

My muse in pondering this question is my borzoi, Boo Boo. Boo Boo (formal name Thorondor, King of the Eagles from the Tolkien Legendarium) is a giant hunting sighthound. That’s Boo Boo below.

A pleasant day in the park with Boo Boo

Borzoi are notoriously difficult to train. They were bred to hunt in packs in front of horses, with the dominant prey being wolves, deer and Russian hares (they’re big.) Upon catching a wolf, they pin him to the ground and wait for the horses to catch up. And though they are a training challenge (I’ve actually trained Boo Boo) they are also quite polite and well-mannered on their own. Most are excellent and loving with children, puppies and other small dogs. But Boo Boo, if he encounters a dog that tries to dominate or attack him, well, that’s another story. He’s a wolfhound, and he’ll jump over it (he has to be provoked) grab it by the trachea and slam it to the ground. Needless to say, I was pretty surprised the first time this happened. Boo Boo had previously taken to running away at 35 mph, which then had me running for my car to chase him. You cannot chase an unwilling borzoi on foot.

What’s interesting about Boo Boo’s hardware/software combo is that the breed is approximately 600 years old — a cross between a greyhound and some guarding shepherd breed. Boo Boo has been with us from his puppyhood, and while I knew I was buying a giant hunting sighthound, and unlike many folks, had no illusions that he would hunt, it has been amazing watching his prey selection. I originally feared he would come into our quiet neighborhood, for example, and clean out the cats. But that has not happened. Boo Boo has only marginal interest in cats. But he catches squirrels regularly, and when his historic prey — deer — show up in the cul-de-sac, it’s all the control he can muster not to jump out of the window.

And when wolf hybrids show up in the dog park, Boo Boo immediately goes into a stalk. I clip him right up, of course. But it’s pretty wild. I have trained Boo Boo in the field for a strong retrieve, and he will come running from almost a mile away. And he will sit and lay down. But that’s about it. I never trained him to hunt wolves. Yet when one simulacra shows up, it’s game on. And so there is the question: how long did it take to go from nurture to nature?

Boo Boo and Ghillie on a long recall

It was with great interest that I tuned in last week to my X pal, Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, professor of public health at Stanford, for his podcast on obesity and root causes. He hosted one of his colleagues, Dr. Joseph Fraiman, who had done some elaborate data mining on the root causes of obesity. You can listen here. His controversial conclusion? That most obese women died during pregnancy and childbirth until the advent of modern obstetric practice, which basically in the process, allowed the explosion of genes that are part and parcel of the obesity crisis. My own take is that these things are multifactorial, and I’ve written a ton on this in the past. Listening to the podcast, I started out really skeptical, but I became convinced by the end that there was a “there” there. In only four generations, we’ve watched this flip from nurture to nature. Wild.

What is particularly interesting about this to me, though, is now we are being bombarded with photo after photo of obese women being promoted as sexy and healthy. I can understand this, and have some level of conscious sympathy. There are so many more obese people now than even 20 years ago. Obese people need love and touch, like we all do. And so on. The argument has been made over and over, and need not be made more here.

But the conscious mind is not what controls both emergence and convergence in the Matrix. What is also coincident to the obesity crisis is our current crisis of fatherlessness, as well as overproduction of elites. These two subjects are covered in detail — the first by Rob K. Henderson in his book Troubled, and the second by Peter Turchin in his book End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration. There are many takeaways from both books, and I highly recommend both of them. Troubled is Henderson’s personal story of how he traversed the foster care system, attended Yale, and ended up with a Ph.D. from Cambridge in England. One of his main points, after seeing the world from both sides of the tracks, is that elites speak in code that is often duplicitous and two-faced — they brandish luxury beliefs that convey social status to the person spouting such beliefs, but in reality they would never practice themselves. The canonical example he uses is “defund the police.” It’s easy if you’re rich and live in a gated community to tell other people you don’t need police. But if you’re poor and you don’t have adequate policing, you’re likely to be victimized by criminals.

Turchin’s book is a bit more complicated, with many points about large scale societal trends. But his main point is that when societies have too many elites, they move into crisis . And these elites wage some version of war on each other, as well as the general population until the herd is culled. What I’ve been pondering is this: What does this likely memetic war look like, and how is it prosecuted?

Henderson gives some excellent examples on how elites wage war on each other. He observed, during his time at Yale, students would be out protesting international investment banking one day, while clamoring to sign up for interviews at Goldman Sachs the next. He posited that maybe they were consciously or unconsciously attempting to limit the size of the pool before interviews, because they all wanted the high paying jobs at Goldman Sachs to stay in the financial elite. So they used these luxury beliefs against each other in order to cull the herd. Since this information and behavior that flows from that information, it is obvious that at least, on the surface, this is classic psychopathic memetic warfare.

But there might be more to it. The question that this behavior led me to is, with regarding obesity, that the conscious interpretation — care and promotion of obesity as a positive lifestyle choice — is a great example of a luxury belief. No elite man wants to marry an obese wife, and the elites have better diets, more access to information about lifestyle choices to counteract the larger societal forces heaping destructive diets on the poor. Stated choice — that obese women are sexy — vs. elected choice — marry a skinny wife — couldn’t be more stark.

But after listening to Dr. Fraiman, maybe it’s more sinister than that. If the obesity epidemic is buried in our genes, as he maintains, maybe in the larger subconscious overmind, elites are promoting obesity as normal to get rid of the competition. It may be that only four generations of genetic transfer were all that is needed to sow this root cause delivered by modern obstetric care into the general population. But genetic recognition of sexual fitness is not so easily rooted out. We know hot when we see it. And what we’re really seeing with this shaming campaign against people that would select for genetic fitness is an attempt to overwhelm our natural senses, once again, with a displaced memetic notion of fitness (fat women are hot) because in the elite mind, those that bought that particular t-shirt would then self-eliminate. The genetic overmind is not so easily persuaded that fat women won’t die during childbirth, though, because that’s what has been coded over a million years. That’s a lot shorter than the 600 years needed to teach a dog to hunt wolves.

But it’s back in the meme-sphere to rewrite this code for this turning of elite overproduction. And being attached to fundamental needs and drives, like the need for sex and touch, is actually diabolical. It’s in the same category in the memetic ungrounding that the transgender and trans humanist movements are based on. Do what we say, dammit. Or else we’re going to do unto you. And it ain’t gonna be pretty. Just like the kids at Yale playing each other as fools for the jobs at Goldman Sachs, we have a much broader campaign to eliminate the competition.

Still more thinking to do, of course. But this is a start. And the conclusion is macabre — if we can just get the unwashed to eliminate themselves, that would save a lot of trouble.

A good piece that might need a little updating, but is still useful, on my views on diet, is at this link.

Luxury Beliefs and Land Grant Universities

Morning on the River of No Return, Salmon River, ID

For those unfamiliar with me, I’m a graduate of multiple elite universities (Case Institute of Technology, Duke University) who elected to be a professor at a land grant institution (Washington State University – main campus in Pullman) for my career. I’ve also done sabbatical overseas, and lectured around the world, on every continent save Antarctica. I’m still open for invites there, FWIW.

To put it succinctly, I’ve kinda seen it all. But the academy that I joined out of high school, in 1979, has changed very dramatically in the past 45 years. Many of the causes of the Left (being anti-war, for example) have now been embraced by those same Lefties. Suffice it to say I’m stunned that the Left is now the pro-War party.

Along the way I’ve developed a theory I call Structural Memetics, which explains how information flows are created in content and complexity through the different topologies of social networks, as well as the psychosocial development of their agents. That’s a mouthful. And while I’d argue that it’s all not that hard, others tell me differently.

So it’s with great excitement that I find someone who gives examples in a way that precisely line up with my work, but in a way that is more accessible. That’s why I recently wrote a piece on Rob Henderson’s book, Troubled, and in particular his concept of luxury beliefs. What is a luxury belief? It’s a belief that elites have, and champion, that they don’t follow, but use to virtue signal to each other that they are elite. These beliefs often hurt the poor, whom the elites profess they want to save. A great example is “Defund the police.”

Rob is primarily working on the individual level in examples in his book. Which is fine — but the overall concept of luxury beliefs can also apply to institutional strategies, or entire societal edifices. Academia (which Rob discusses in the context of individuals and classes) falls into the same pattern. One can look at contemporary Wokism and its destructive fascination with infinite fractal categorization as a great example of aggregated luxury beliefs (intersectionality, etc. — everything but people forming their own opinions of others) as a primary cancer on both the individual and institutional psychosocial development process. No one has embraced this nearly as much as the entire academic enterprise. The universities that have pushed back against this can be literally counted on one hand.

People going to elite schools, for the most part, do not have to worry about their material circumstance, and usually have their employment futures secured. They are elite, and have been granted a lifetime of elite coding and signaling that they also share with high level employers. When they interview, they know how to shine. One more etiquette dinner will neither make nor break their lifetime trajectory. I taught at Duke as a professor for my last year before I moved to WSU. I remember a conversation I had with one very nice, and competent young man. I asked him what he was going to do after finishing school, and if he was worried about finding a job. “My father is on the board of a Fortune 100 company,” he replied. Even though this was 37 or so years ago, it simply wasn’t on the top of his mind. Woke had not yet been borne into existence, but the one thing I did notice with all my rich students (at the time, Enzo Ferrari’s granddaughter went to school there, and you can guess what she drove — it wasn’t a Volkswagen) was they were intellectually curious and most were also hardworking. They did not take well to drill — they were truly better than the average bear — and greatly appreciated creative educational planning and exercises. Telling them they were not going to get a job if they didn’t listen to me was obviously going to fall on deaf ears.

This is not true at all with my current crop of land grant students. In part because of the diligence of myself and the faculty in my college, our numbers of First Generation students + Underrepresented Minorities (some confounded benchmark) now is 34% of our engineering class. I’m proud of this number — it took some serious perseverance, and largely happened before Woke, or the current fascination with DEI even became a thing.

Yet they are being bombarded, through the copying and mimesis process that our larger institution follows with regards to beliefs in elite schools, with the same luxury beliefs that the virtue-signaling elite schools ostensibly embody. There are many examples of this — I can recall a recent trip to our student rec center where all the signal boards were largely dominated by announcements for the LBGTQIA+ community, including reading sessions for “queering the literature” (whatever that means.) Kids come to land grant institutions to learn stuff to get a leg up in the job market. It’s our professed purpose. Those other elite schools can do what they want — but the anchor departments of land grant institutions are Mechanical Arts and the Ag College. It’s not a value judgement against the other stuff. It’s just our fundamental charter. How is “queering the literature” going to help them make a buck? Or even provide any social meaning that isn’t inherently relationally disruptive that might give employers pause?

One of the most destructive parts I’ve seen transmitted to our land grant institutions, that we can ill afford, is the corrosive belief that hierarchy doesn’t matter. Elites, and children of elites, are smart enough to dodge this nonsense, while giving lip service to it. But poor students simply have no reference for it. And we, as faculty, at some level are supposed to cater to it. It all looks warm and fuzzy on the surface — shouldn’t we treat students fairly and equitably? But as I tell my students — once you get past basic human rights, you are not my equal. It’s a toxic message that you’re getting, that you’d best ignore. Any professor that tells students “I’ll learn more from you than you’ll learn from me,” is one best ignored, or better, transferred out of their class. Students are literally PAYING me money because I’m supposed to know more, and I’m supposed to teach them.

What these beliefs really do is set up the university as a low responsibility environment, and not very different from a dysfunctional family where narcissistic inversion — the children taking care of the parents — is never far from the surface. And worse, when the student hits the job market — especially the ones from dysfunctional families — they have no functional codes for finding a mentor that can actually help them learn. No one learns everything they need to know in college. Especially in engineering, you learn how to be an engineer the first three years on the job. But one can also see that elites, through luxury beliefs, are sabotaging the non-elites, who might actually believe that garbage. Already behind because of family dynamics, they fall further behind in identifying functional adults to help them, as well as the protocols for interaction.

I recently had a situation where I had two former students who came to me because they were underemployed. Both these students would be in a DEI-protected status group. Both would NEVER be considered a DEI hire – they were in the top quartile of students I’ve taught, or better. They were a male and female, and both, I thought, would have been placed in a prestigious company after graduation. Yet both had ended up getting scooped up by our employment vacuum scourge in mechanical engineering — mechanical contractors associated with the building trades, looking for hires to train as air conditioning inspectors — instead of getting hired by Meta, Blue Origin, or one of the myriad high profile and high prestige companies that support my clinic program.

My analysis will not be popular, but I think two things were likely in play. These students’ records supported getting an initial interview — they very likely got by the AI screening. But they were not armed with the right behavioral codes to “close the deal.” My personal intervention and recommendation would likely help, of course, in the future. But a lot of my students get jobs, often at these prestige companies, with no help from me at all. At some level, in the abbreviated interview process that hiring occurs (especially for new hires) they committed some sin of omission — no moment where the hiring manager sitting across from them profoundly thought “I want this person on my team!” And so they were edged out of another opportunity.

And the whole DEI enterprise is also profoundly harmful for their prospects. Even though there are incentive systems in place to hire underrepresented minorities, the reality many managers face is that if they do hire someone, and that person doesn’t work out, it will be almost impossible to fire them without some level of social stigmatization. What that translates into is that lowering the bar through DEI actually RAISES the bar both racially and in a class sense. Elites from underrepresented minorities, who already can deliver messages in the social codes of the day, can indeed quickly get hired. But those without that same coding — which is primarily a class consideration — are inherently sidelined, and underemployed.

Are these simply the times we live in? I actually think Peter Turchin, in his book End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration, is spot on with his analysis that societal tumult dramatically increases when elites overproduce themselves. He notes in the book that polygamous societies undergo these changes at about twice the rate of monogamous societies (I can’t remember the interval, and just listened to the book) and it seems to jibe. Further, because there are not enough interstices for elites to plug into, as well as enough material wealth to distinguish themselves with, they start producing software instead of hardware. These beliefs, dependent on the competitive pressure, become more and more fractal, situational, and imposed from the outside as time goes on — a perfect explanation of wokism.

One of the unanswered questions I had when listening to Turchin’s book was how elites “cull the herd,” so there are not so many elites around. Elite overproduction has to end with some level of competitive elimination. Absent war and direct human extermination, what we’re witnessing with elite/land grant competition instead is high level memetic psychopathic gaslighting, with the emergent goal being that same process of elimination. Henderson writes in his book, Troubled, about how students at Yale would protest investment banking one day, while the next lining up to interview for the elite, high paying jobs at institutions like Goldman Sachs the next. Classic “stated vs. elected preference” bullshit. And since institutions can assume the same memetic character, they function in the same role of mimesis/mirroring of these institutions that profoundly handicap them from moving up precisely when the elite institutions are weakest. Instead of recognizing the lack of grounding and overt falsehoods regarding success the elites are propagating, and overt gaslighting happening on an institutional level, they end up as Tail End Charlies, taking the flak, and getting picked off as the formation passes overhead.

Henderson brings this up as well — the professed elite belief in “luck” as a driver in success. I myself have a very financially successful son, who is one of the blockchain pioneers. As one of the youngest founders of a Unicorn — a start-up hitting a $1B valuation, even I will tell people that luck was involved.

And it was. But my son also had the extreme advantage of me as his father, who drove constant problem-solving throughout his life. And he was exposed to the latest trends in tech through me. He learned self-education early on in his career, and basically taught himself the entire field of cryptography (which he has lectured at Stanford on in a graduate class.) And he worked hard as well. Luck indeed.

There is more to all of this, of course. But I’m going to ask readers to comment on this piece along the lines of “what statement do you hear from a given young person that immediately seals the deal for hiring them?” What is being omitted that you DON’T hear, that then causes you to down-sort a given individual?

Troubled – A Memoir

Brothers (and a cute dog)– in the Valley

I’ve recently completed a book that I think should be on the reading list of basically everyone in the United States, who is involved in understanding and wanting to change the current milieu. The title is Troubled, by Rob K. Henderson, and it’s the life story/memoir of a young man raised largely as poor in the foster care system, who at the current point of his life is finishing (or has recently finished) his Ph.D. in psychology at Cambridge in the U.K.

The book is a first person memoir that covers the time period from his birth to the present. Born to a drug addicted mother, whom he spent the first three years of his life with, he traverse the foster/adopted parent landscape, with his eventual enlistment in the US Air Force, followed by a degree at Yale, and then his current Ph.D. posting. What is amazing about this book is that it is largely representative of those of us coming from profoundly dysfunctional families, with the family structure shifting and dissolving almost on a regular 9 month interval. Rob bounced through some nine different foster placements, IIRC, after being taken from his mother at the age of 3, for being tied up by his mother and screaming while she entertained various men in their apartment.

The beauty of the book is its low level dysthymic tone and structure. Not everything is bad all the time, and that gives a far more accurate view of poverty in the United States than others. I recently attempted to get through, for example, Barbara Kingsolver’s recent novel, Demon Copperhead, but could not, because it turned into a classic Misery Olympics tome. For the record, I’m a pretty big Kingsolver fan — she grew up across the Ohio River from my own hometown of Portsmouth, OH, and I’ve always appreciated her descriptions of my own childhood environs. But Henderson does a much better job of capturing the grinding sadness of loss of faith in stability of adults in kids’ lives, as well as the actual violence that people in poorer communities across the US experience. The short version is simple — it may be more stimulating, and glamorous if the violence is upped a couple of clicks. But then you usually don’t survive it. You get killed, or you kill someone and end up in jail. Henderson’s journey is one of the actual lower classes, and not nearly so dramatic. And that is the reason to read it.

Though I never experienced the chronic extent of what Henderson endured, I’m fond of joking that on the ACE (Adverse Childhood Experience) scale of “bad things happening to you in the course of your life”, I’m a heptathlete on the scale of 1-10. I experienced the fighting, the dealing with chronic adult problems and the like. But like Henderson, I never had to deal with sexual abuse, which in my opinion is likely statistically the thing that really makes young people go off the rails. Though it’s no way to raise a child, there’s also no question that chronic abuse lends to those lucky enough to inherit a robust neural system the ability to discern insights into the human condition that you simply can’t get from a happy, two-parent home.

And that’s what makes this book so important. It’s an actual window into that world, with the author stating right up front (I think in the preface) that the usual nostrums of education as a ladder out of dysfunction are vastly overrated. Stable attachment is actually key, and as someone that shares his own diagnosis of chronic dysthymia (low level depression and cynicism) I can attest that this is correct. You end up outside the stable family ice cream shop, perpetually looking in while you spend a lifetime processing your wounds, often incorrectly, while others are enjoying their lives.

I also deeply share Rob’s view that he also states in the book when people tell him “well, you turned out alright.” Either the implication is “it couldn’t have been that bad” or “this must be an OK way to raise kids.” Lordy. I’ve found from my own experience the only people holding that opinion are either the divinely clueless, or pathological narcissists.

There are a couple of points which I conjecture likely saved Rob from utter destruction. I think he does a great job in the book of explaining how life in the military helped him navigate his early adulthood while not going to jail. He also seemed to avoid lots of hard drugs, and that had to help. But oddly enough, One of the factors I conjecture that he likely survived because he did get to spend the first three years of his life with his drug-addicted mother. I’m not attempting to minimize the trauma associated with being an infant and having some level of abuse directed at him. But while it likely has given him unstable attachment patterns, he likely at least has some. Kids mostly form up their young brains in the first two years, and having a constant caregiver, no matter how poor, is key. Rob’s own story shows that it’s far more likely to get passed through a series of foster placements than to end up adopted. That’s what happened to him.

And early attachment matters. I’ve fought for this at the university for years — providing day care for children and mothers so that young infants don’t experience a revolving door of violation from caregivers leaving every couple of months. If we really wanted to prioritize something that might make a difference in the next generation, it would be this.

Itinerant father figures do pop into Rob’s life on a more unscheduled basis, and Rob’s writing once again supports my thesis that common wisdom delivered from elders is important, and relatively uncommon. One thing Rob does a great job of describing is how many successful life habits, mostly involved with longer-term consequential thinking, simply did not occur to him at various points in his life. They seem obvious (and are likely mimetic, not memetic) but they absolutely are not to an increasing number of young people. I find in my classroom (I’m teaching senior undergraduate engineers here — people who by any measure of success have almost made it) that the notion of holding yourself accountable to excellent work is a foreign concept. I beat into their heads that they are the best, and that is not a snowflake brag — it is a brand promise to pay attention to the world around them to excel. These are the folks that are designing the next generation of planes, rockets and trucks. You better hope they’re the best.

Rob also singlehandedly demolishes the current ‘Woke’ movement in one of his final chapters with what I believe a term he’s coined — “Luxury beliefs.” He does a great job of explaining elite coding at a more accessible level than I do. Elites often subscribe to beliefs to prove their virtue to each other that they themselves never follow. This is a classic “stated preference/elected preference” gaslighting technique that manipulators use. One of the examples he gives is “Defund the police.” He correctly notes that this affects poor communities far more than rich communities, but if you want to move up in current elite liberal circles, you have to rep it. These destructive beliefs virally propagate because they are fundamentally ungrounded, and sound nice on the surface, but are deeply problematic.

And as Rob also notes in a measured tone, with each of his examples, there may be opportunities for continued progress in better and more humane solutions. But the impacts of any policy will be felt more harshly on the poor than the rich, who often end up with disastrous, collapsing cascades of personal crisis. One of the statistics I cite a lot in arguments is the fact that 25% of African-American kids are likely to experience an eviction before reaching the age of majority. And then that leads to other disasters. Not everyone survives these disasters, especially if they have a fractured family, full of immature actors. And they either melt into the justice system, or they die.

So read this book. It’s the best text I’ve listened to in a while, and Rob himself narrates it. The one thing that I did find memetically interesting is that Rob ended up in elite circles himself — he is at Cambridge, after all. I’d encourage him to dig outside the thinking that dominates in those circles, and use his experience well, with a critical eye. If you read this, Rob, do know that those people’s thought patterns are largely broken. They really don’t understand psychopathy/Cluster B well, and many of them are afflicted, as well as being afflicters. Check out my work, of course, but also dig into my metamodern pals, like Hanzi Freinacht (Daniel Goetz and Emil Ejner Friis.) They also tend not to like Bowlby and other family systems therapists either. They’re just not systems thinkers, and the problem is, of course, that people are trapped in systems that are poorly understood, but deliver execrable outcomes for the lives of far too many.

And Rob – thank you for your heroism. One of the chief problems with even getting people like Rob to write down their narrative in a meaningful fashion is that many of the people who are the perpetrators are still alive. And needless to say, they don’t like being written about. Curiously enough, since Rob’s tale is one of chronic abandonment, it’s likely that he’s relatively safe from the legal hassles normally engendered when writing about one’s dysfunctional past openly and honestly. And while I absolutely do not condone child abuse, nor adult abuse for that matter, the ancient Greeks knew that this was the path where heroes were born. Hercules didn’t have twelve labors for nothing.

For those interested in a somewhat sanitized and incomplete version of my own story, here you go.

The 2024 Olympics — A Master Class in Elite Coding Disruption

A river runs through it

You know that the world is in the need of understanding the power of psychopathy when one of the singular events, specifically hosted to bring the nations of the world together, instead is hijacked for relational disruption. The 2024 Summer Olympics seem destined to fill the bill for this.

I’m sure there are lots of those classic Olympic moments that show the value of competition, and good sportsmanship. The problem is that the Olympics is an event that necessarily must be seen through the lens of the mass media. We can’t expect coverage of the myriad venues solely by independent observers on social media. So in a sense, we actually get to see the perspective of the media as well as what they attempt to show us. It’s left up to social media to then interpret what’s happening. It reminds me of Kurt Vonnegut’s analogy in his seminal work, Slaughterhouse V, where our own perspective is described by the space aliens in the book, the Tralfamadorians, as being strapped to a rail car, with long pipes tied to our eyes, on a track turning and twisting.

And even as Simone Biles twists and turns through the various events (she is indeed the GOAT), two warping events have at least dominated my media cultural view. The first was the opening ceremony, and the second involved a gender-misrepresented boxer from Algeria, competing in the women’s division, who is quite obviously a male, and was declared a male by other boxing authorities outside the International Olympic Committee (IOC).

The opening ceremony was a pretty blasphemous representation of the painting by Leonardo da Vinci of Jesus’ Last Supper. Instead of having apostles, we had drag queens with a fatty, haloed princess occupying the role of Jesus. The thing that was fascinating was the director, Thomas Jolly, is a declared ‘queer’ (whatever that exactly means) and of course assembled the cast for ‘representation of diverse constituencies’. It appeared to me that rather than the Last Supper, the montage was more a representation of a Feast of the Gods representation by Jan van Bijlert from 1635, which also seems to copy the Last Supper. Arguing about the factual content, though, is exactly the point of the manipulation. In order to prove one’s point, one requires esoteric knowledge (is it, or is it not the Last Supper? Or another Dutch Master? Excuse me while I clutch my pearls…) available only to a particular, cloistered class, that can then stake a claim of moral virtue for having the unwashed identify the paint as da Vinci’s. It hardly serves the role of bringing the world’s traditions together. And by doing so, it attacks the deep, tribal codes involved in the Guest/Host relationship, inviting both Host and Guest to offend the other.

And when you do that, well, the Gods are angry. And since such an affront is typically prevented by cultural codes literally around the world, what you end up with is transcultural rage.

The second primary affront occurred in the boxing ring. Imane Khelif, ostensibly a female from Algeria on her birth certificate, but quite obviously a male, who tested with XY chromosomes, got into subsequent rings and beat the hell out of a number of women boxers. Along his/her way to their medal (I think I’ve covered all the pronouns) he broke Angela Carini’s nose, an Italian boxer who stopped the fight, but later apologized to Khelif for casting any aspersion in his/her direction.

Imane Khelifif that ain’t a dude, I don’t know what a dude is

By not drawing any kind of a clear line on sex, the IOC showed that they were more tools of the elites than anything else. Various other boxing organizations had disqualified Khelif as being a male before the Olympics, which immediately draws into question what the hell is really going on in The Matrix. The end strategy, and result, however, were clear. Only experts can decide what is plainly obvious to the rest of us — without having to look down his pants. And if we can get ordinary people to fight, well, that’s the point. While the lumpenproletariat is busy brawling, at a minimum, the elites establish their advanced coding and, well elitism. They really are better than the rest of us.

And what better venue than boxing? All of this is so misogynistic it makes my head spin — and I’ve got a pretty stiff neck. It’s code switching for women to box in the first place. Call my parents old fashioned, but the taboo violation of men hitting women was deeply ingrained in my upbringing.

Now you bring women on the international stage, and you have a man kick the living shit out of a woman, all the while lying about whether one of the women is a dude — psychopathic backlash is what you are going to get. Whether you planned for it or not. Having a backlog of bullshit to justify this (lots of pictures of Imane as a child being raised as a girl) might get you some advocates from the ranks of the elites. But it is in direct violation of the whole point of the Olympics. Which I thought is for folks to find common ground, across countries and cultures. Not to demonstrate the latest fashion in virtue signaling among the privileged.

The other male/female boxer, Lin Yu-ting, from Taiwan, also proceeded to getting a gold medal in their weight class. The thing that was most fascinating for me is that both the Algerian contingent, AND the Taiwanese contingent, were speaking vociferously in favor of the deception on X. If there’s a meta-hierarchy of tribalism in groups visible in the Olympics, it is really in identification with the largest, low v-meme coded group you can find. Even my wife, who is Taiwanese, was willing to roll on the Algerian boxer. But though apparently the physical evidence is roughly the same, as well as the circumstance (both were declared males by the other various boxing organizations) she wouldn’t give in when it came to the Taiwanese Dudette. “I have lots of friends that look like boys” she said. DeepOS will out.

And then there’s the general hopelessness of other countries, outside those that can support megalithic athletic programs that can consistently produce Olympic champions. Maybe the real lesson here is that a competition based on gaslighting us into believing in equality of competition between nation-states is really a waste of time. And both these controversies are emblematic of emergent behavior that would come out of the deep code of the event. In the United States, we recognize this intrinsically in all our high school sports competitions. No “Single A” high school football team expects to prevail over a “Triple A” school with a much larger population base. Maybe it’s time to recognize this and create a better system.

Whatever. I honestly hardly can bring myself to care. It’s just a broken opportunity, and part of the inherent forces of decentralization that are at play in the world.

And outside watching the larger memetic experiment on display, I won’t be watching in detail. Especially boxing. I really don’t need to see men beating women up, and then being told that’s not what I was watching. Those with real experience of violence know what they’re looking at. What’s really going on here is using a deliberate blurring of hardware and software in order to get people to fight. And I’ll have no part in it.

This piece on Woke Dynamics is a good intro on how all this works.

Why Inside Out 2 is Upside Down

Boo Boo on the Beach — Pure Joy Personified

When you have a wife who’s a psychologist, and a movie that’s directly on psychology comes out, guess what. You’re gonna go watch it. And I’m not talking about psychological thrillers here. My wife works with sad people and children. While she’s not perfect, she’s no psychopath. And as any sane psychologist will tell you, they are the worst part of the practice.

So when Inside Out originally came out in 2015, of course we went to see it. I remember finding it enjoyable enough, as well as applicable enough to the work I write about to have a small e-mail conversation with the chief technical advisor to the film, Dacher Keltner. For the record, he is a very smart and pleasant human, and we had some honest intellectual fun sharing ideas on adolescent development.

And Inside Out (2015) had enough big themes that it was entertaining. Discussing the move from Minnesota to the coast was big enough — separation, anxiety, starting over and growing up — that I was amused enough to think about it at least a little while after it passed.

Not so much for Inside Out 2 (2024). What had nine years of development wrought? Nothing good. Now the main protagonist, Riley, who is now a 13 year old ostensibly adolescent girl, is settled in at her new home in California, and making a transition to joining an up-grade hockey league. She has to leave behind her old friends, who are going to a different school, and somehow make a team of new girls so she can play in high school.

But the whole movie this time has been run through the current DEI blender, as well as pounding stereotypes of male de-testosteronization. The mom’s in charge, the dad’s a cuck, and Riley is annoying. Character development is relatively non-existent, save for making sure that there’s a “rainbow” of representation for all the various roles on the team. The coach is a stern-faced African-American woman, who is never developed as any character other than to have a cartoon character painted in blackface. Riley’s potential new teammates are a once-and-future dyke, a character actually wearing a hijab, a Hispanic girl and others. I can’t remember, and I don’t care. The goal, on the surface, is to virtue-signal the audience with representation.

The plot is annoying enough — who really cares if a 13-year-old girl doesn’t make a sports team? How CAN you care? But you can at least recruit enough psychologists to watch this kind of movie if you scatter enough Easter Eggs — little psychological professional nuggets — to make the therapists in the movie feel, well, special. But you can’t get away from the lack of gravitas. Yeah, I know it’s a cartoon. But you start wondering if something else is going on. And Riley’s emotions and transitions ain’t it.

But what really IS going on? It’s another piece of gaslighting media out of Hollywood, that really is wrecking the enjoyment value of anything emanating from that particular black hole of society. The movie could easily have been made about a young girl joining a basketball team (far more relevant for the California backdrop than hockey) than foisting on us some unbelievable multicultural hockey paradise. A black female hockey coach? Really? Are we really at the stage of society where we believe that African-Americans cannot play hockey, or are being denied opportunities to play hockey, that a children’s cartoon has to be stunning and brave with this portrayal?

And while the racial/ethnic teammates might be somewhat representative of California as a whole, it’s utterly unrepresentative of any hockey team you’d find anywhere. Once again, why is Hollywood in general, or Pixar/Disney doing this in particular? You get the feeling you are being propagandized and gaslit by a stupid movie. It’s not that white folks have a total lock on hockey, to the point where any other minority showing up is pandering with its own version of cultural appropriation. But if there’s a white sport, folks, it’s hockey. You’re being played. And it doesn’t feel good.

But that’s the point. The emergent effect of this kind of media is to make folks dull down their sense of reality that this cartoon is supposed to be enhancing, and tune out. And boy, does it do that in spades. Contrast this to my recent video affectation, Battlestar Galactica (the reimagined 2003 series) which is likely the most integrated racial/ethnic portrayal of any TV series of all time. I challenge anyone to even take the character representations on that show and see how any current DEI portrayals actually influence the plot. You can’t really recount someone’s background. And why? The character development is so oriented on who they are, that what they are is absolutely irrelevant.

And once again, why does this matter? Just before my wife and I checked out the movie, my younger son and I took a short visit to the Oregon Coast. Sitting in the hotel room in between hikes, my son and I were watching the NBA playoffs. As per usual, there was an endless stream of ads for all sorts of the usual shit. Except, by at least a ratio of 10:1, the actors and pitch-folks in those ads were mostly African-American, mostly multicultural, and all middle class or up. I had never known about the existence of a ubiquitous African-American semi-elite until I watched all those ads. And if you know anything about the income distribution in this country (African-Americans make up ~13% of the population, but only .3% of the GDP!) you start realizing that all those ads are really just gaslighting you. You are being played.

I know the minute that I say this, the simpletons out there will say “but you’re a racist! We need representation in order to move forward the agenda!” I’m OK with representation. But this is ridiculous. And what it really serves to do is provide social anesthesia that really only helps the elites in society. Problems that people refuse to face don’t get solved. It’s literally a Potemkin Village out there in media-land.

After our beach sojourn, Conor and I drove back into the upper Willamette wine country. We arbitrarily picked two wineries to stop by and indulge — and by “arbitrarily” I really mean that. One I picked as the winery of a famous rich inventor. The other I literally had no idea. When we drove up into the parking lot at Domaine Serene, it was almost like approaching an estate in the Loire Valley. We got out into a large, well appointed bar and dining room. Does anyone want to guess how many African-Americans were waiting for a table? Or even Asian-Americans? Pure as the driven snow doesn’t even begin to describe it.

Of course, the fine hostesses at that establishment would have seated anyone (well, at least in the bar — that’s what they did with us.) But if you need a class discriminator, I can tell you that driving into the middle of the countryside and paying $34/glass for some Pinot Noir is definitely an upper middle class/rich white thing to do.

The problem with the constant bombardment and gaslighting around race — both positive and negative — is that it shuts down and disorients the critical faculties of people. And it goes without saying that it destroys any discussion of anything other than the official line, which, quite frankly is still not working out. But worse, it creates a populace that tunes out on everything. Our brains don’t compartmentalize this kind of stuff.

Misrepresented virtue is still misrepresented virtue. It creates an impenetrable fog that disables all of us. And makes it far more easy for psychopaths to manipulate us. And ignore the real problems in communities of color. As well as problems white folks are having as well.

On Trump’s Assassination Attempt, Civil War, and Leaky LARPs

Yosemite Fire Sunset, 2024

It’s increasingly hard to keep up with any cogent view of the news cycle, in these last couple of weeks in July. Short version — Donald Trump was nearly assassinated on July 13, 2024, at a rally in Butler, PA. The breathless press first didn’t want to admit that Trump was shot, but then that was followed by an endless litany of calls for essentially civil war, especially in the subjunctive (“If Trump had been killed,” for all of those that weren’t forced to study Latin) and then followed on the heels of all this, the announcement by Joe Biden on July 21 that he was dropping out of the presidential race.

Screenshot from CNN after Trump was shot. Even then, CNN was attempting to monkey with the script

Everyone assumes that each of these events are independently momentous, finally, FINALLY leading to some Manichaean conclusion and Götterdämmerung, after which the world will be destroyed and born anew. History must have SOME inflection point, no? The press insists.

But no one’s asking any structural questions on any of this (except for a few voices like this blog.) If Donald Trump had died, how would that civil war actually have taken place? Other than gathering for meetings in the town square, or local park, with their pussy hats, or marching along avenues reserved by the multi-billion dollar entertainment mountebanks known as Black Lives Matter, Americans can’t hardly organize anything political. I have yet to be at a large rally where anyone was collecting names and phone numbers for future contacts. The Old Gods in both parties know this. But the show must go on.

And it does. Geography, as I’ve explained, is functionally dead, save for looting stores in Blue states. What you see on your computer screens, via TikTok, or X, is a postcards-from-the-edge approach to news. Some people manage to get together and break some windows. But more and more, what’s really happening is a slow slide into decay. I visited an old friend in Portland a little more than a month ago. There was some evidence of rioting activity present in downtown Portland. But the biggest sign obvious to me was the lack of shopping in what was once an energetic downtown retail district, as well as miles of dilapidated RVs parked along Lombard Street.

And fat people everywhere, of course. The national obesity rate has passed 42%. The real crisis is in the metabolic health of Americans, as well as a constant slide into poverty and homelessness. As well as the adaptive reality that if you’re going to live in a broken down RV, it’s a whole lot more comfortable to do it someplace where it is warm, and food is still relatively cheap. Folks have some eatin’ to do.

I still marvel at the people in the press claiming that the nation is on the brink of civil war. Wars are physical things, historically fought by young, healthy males. That’s just a statement of fact, with the truth of it aligned in our genes. When all your young males are fat, you’re not fighting anyone. Regardless of how many AR-15s you spread around.

And I still am impressed with the raw stupidity associated with calling January 6, 2021, an insurrection. Do people have any idea how utterly impossible it is to control anything from the U.S. Capitol? The elected officials on salaries of $200K, with a complete complement of near-slaves, in the guise of interns, can’t do it. Insurrections put different people in power that actually command some level of authority and respect. Not dudes with buffalo headdresses made from Gray Owl kits. It is a mystery to me how to get the federal government to do anything. How would the ostensible insurrectionists even know who to call to bark orders or threaten? I’ve said over and over that most people don’t even have any idea where their electricity or water comes from (give yourself a quiz and see if you can accurately answer that question before feeling smug.) “The Grid” is not a valid answer, though I’d be impressed if most people could even say that.

What’s really going on in front of our eyes is what I’ve decided to name a Leaky LARP. LARP stands for Live Action Role Playing game, a combination of re-enactment, storytelling and gaming—players are given a role and act out their character’s actions within an overarching story, from the Merriam-Webster dictionary. The reporters on said LARP are actually intrinsic, and important Non-Player Characters (NPCs) in the game. They certainly can’t comprehend the extent of complexity of modern society themselves. But they do know where they’re supposed to line up with the general story line. And they also know their paycheck depends on them delivering, through clicks and other measures of engagement on the Internet. So the story must be exciting.

The problem is, with all this “through a glass darkly” stuff, is that it’s like a fictional movie that leads with a trailer that says “this movie, while a work of fiction, is based on historical events.” Except those historical events are actually real, and are happening, and usually involve the harm or death of someone in the Real World. It’s all scripted. Until, well, it isn’t. Trump was nearly killed by a 20-year-old male (at least at this current time I’m writing) who set himself up as a LARP-player extraordinaire. The incompetent bureaucracy assigned to President Trump played their part as incompetent bureaucrats, replete with local law enforcement clowns, and DEI agent hires unable to holster their guns. Trump dutifully played his part as well, not dying, of course, but then standing up with the help of agents and raising his fist in the air and mouthing “fight, fight, fight!”

Of all the players in this Leaky LARP, Trump has known he’s a central figure, and his performance didn’t disappoint. Whether he authentically, instantaneously shoved his fist into the air, or did a great piece of improv. doesn’t in the end really matter. When someone nearly blows your head off, at least in my book, they get the benefit of the doubt. Fight, fight, fight it is. He was still a 30 degree twist of his head from getting his brains blown out.

I wrote a piece on Donald Trump back in 2016, right after he was elected the first time. It still holds up, and contains one of my favorite lines I’ve ever written. It’s solid, and I recommend reading it.

But in the larger Theory of Empathetic Evolution scheme of things, he’s just another relational disruptor inside a system declining for other reasons. 

And like a play based on characters violating the Fourth Wall with the audience, our LARP only occasionally grounds itself to the outside world in real terms. Bullets hit ears of presidential candidates. Small sections of major urban areas get turned into No-Man’s Lands, with looted Walgreens, or spin-out competitions in intersections. And while the line may seem blurred between fantasy and reality, the other truth is that people actually die, and lives are wrecked in the context of those grounding moments. As Melania Trump’s letter to the American people elegantly stated, Donald Trump has a family too. Regardless of which part of his brain center lifted his fist into the air.

If there’s a takeaway from this, it’s that we need to pay more attention to the backdrop, and less to the scripted moments. Shit never stopped getting real. And it would behoove us to focus on the long line of trailers on Lombard St. in Portland, or the fat folks waddling through the local Walmart — or Food Co-op. Not nearly as exciting — but a telling signal in a pattern of nationwide decline.