This piece was solid reasoning for the time – about asymptomatic spread. But no one really investigated rates of asymptomatic -> asymptomatic, so we were left only with the fear component. And we still have poor estimates of natural immunity. I’d give this, in hindsight, a C+.
This piece looks at rate dynamics of COVID vs. other viruses, and how COVID got the jump on the health care profession. History will likely show this piece as insightful for the containment stage of the pandemic (when it was written) but not good enough when COVID became widespread, and people started building immunity toward it without illness. B+
No apologies – good for the point in time it was written, but obviously incredibly wrong for the current level of knowledge. As hard as it may be to believe, we were struggling to get anyone to wear a mask that wasn’t of Asian descent. D+ for ignoring past research.
Still relevant and solid. But here’s the other point – hospitals didn’t fail. Some level of supply and demand, even in our messed up health care system, worked to create the right amount of capacity. B+
Deep-rooted value memes will dictate how societies react in crisis. This piece is not nearly as hard on China and its chronic gaslighting of everyone else as it should be, but considering when it was written, it shows the power of understanding societal values as coordination mechanisms. A-
Written at the beginning of interest in psychedelics as treatment for trauma. My thinking has evolved on this a bit – I can now see some mechanisms where psychedelics might really help reset folks who are messed up. But this piece is still solid.
This is a good one – showing how validity grounding, relational structures, and appropriate scaffolding of concepts and theories all matter in actually figuring out whether two data sets are connected. This piece was the start of a lot of my thinking on closed and open systems.
Understanding exactly why Malcolm Gladwell says 10K hours to mastery, and what knowledge structure it applies to is what this post is about. As well as attempting to re-explain all my other knowledge structure work, and why most larger hunks of knowledge can be reconstructed from a basis set of structures.
Attempting to understand and contextualize the numerous environmental crises happening in the Amazon and adjacent river systems, and figuring out who exactly is really causing the damage. A blend of dissection, as well as my own observations from visiting Brazil.
An intro to my empathetic leadership book, and a takedown of appealing, yet fundamentally authority-based thinking in the social sciences. If more social scientists read this post, and actually understood the implications (that most stuff in the social sciences is essentially made up and primed for confirmation bias) we might be able to fix that 50% irreproducibility rate in their journal articles.
In case anyone wants to hold up China as leading the way to a more empathetic world – well, read this post. And how things like the 36 Strategems are fundamentally antithetical to a just, complex world.